Jubaland’s regional leader, Ahmed Madobe, is mobilizing forces in preparation for a possible military confrontation with Somali National Army (SNA) troops stationed in Raskamboni, Lower Juba. Reports indicate that thousands of regional troops have been deployed from Jana Abdalle, Kismayo, and Bulo Haji to Kudha, a strategic location near Raskamboni, as both sides position themselves for a potential clash. This follows the Somali government’s recent airlift of troops and weaponry to Raskamboni, intensifying the standoff.

Madobe has placed several senior commanders under house arrest, including the head of the Birjeh units. The detained commanders are accused of maintaining ties with Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre and allegedly plotting to facilitate defections of Jubaland forces to the federal government. This internal crackdown underscores the escalating mistrust within the Jubaland administration amid growing tensions.

The Somali federal government has been ramping up efforts to weaken Madobe’s hold on Jubaland following his re-election last month in a controversial vote denounced by Mogadishu as unfair and unconstitutional. Last week, over a dozen aircraft delivered federal troops and arms to Raskamboni, signaling the government’s determination to challenge the regional leader’s authority.

The military buildup on both sides has heightened fears of a broader conflict in the region. As Madobe consolidates his forces and the federal government doubles down on its stance, the standoff highlights the fragility of Somalia’s federal system and the deepening divisions between Mogadishu and Jubaland.